Description

Now that we have a pretty good idea of the two most probable Democratic candidates to face Donald Trump in this Fall’s election, it could be very interesting to project how the coming months will evolve, and with what result.

Bring your opinions NOT primarily on who is better, but how the voters will respond to the choices we will have.

Critical Questions

1. Who is most competent among them to win the majority support of our voters?
2. Which Democratic candidate is most likely able to stand up to Trump’s overwhelming assault?
3. What does the majority of voters really want?
4. What will convince the most voters to support a given candidate?
5. What campaign strategy is most likely to work?

Important Consideration – Long-term trend to Populist Authoritarians

– According to Pippa Norris (Harvard Political Scientist, see below), for two decades populist authoritarian leaders have attracted swelling support. This is not driven by economic inequality and dispossession but rather a cultural backlash against more liberal social issues, e.g. diversity, LGBTQ rights, egalitarian gender roles and racial equality, plus a more secular democratic representation that is more secular, more democratic and more global. This has triggered a deep and intense reaction among traditionalists who feel threatened, marginalized, and left behind. Traditionalists are older, whiter, and less well educated – and have turned towards forceful leaders promising to hold back the rising tide. Occurring in Europe for decades. Populism is an anti-establishment impulse: political power should not reside with economic, intellectual or political elites, but with the people. But populism is rhetoric without policy. Do you agree?
– Where is this likely to go or evolve?

From Harvard Magazine March – April 2020. “The Authoritarian Reflex” pg 40. Pippa Norris, the McGuire lecturer in comparative politics at the Harvard Kennedy School where she has taught since 1992.

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